MODEL PREDICTION · 2026-07-19

N. Bartunkova vs Y. Yuan — prediction

Livesport Prague Open
Result pending
BARTUNKOVAWIN PROBABILITYYUAN
60%
model prob.
@1.40
odds · 71% impl.
⏱Rest 16d vs 5d🎾Serve 60%📈Form 5/10
THE MODEL'S REASONING

›Ranking: #48 vs #121 (better ranked)

›Recent form: 5/10 in recent matches

›Model 60% vs market 71% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds

Calibrated model probability (~64% out-of-sample accuracy, validated specifically on WTA). Not a guarantee: the model ≈ the market on average, so the odds already capture almost all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.
@1.67
fair odds
−16.4%
expected value
HOW EACH FACTOR MATTERS
Level (Elo/ranking)▸ Bartunkova●●●
Bartunkova's #48 ranking and 1638 Elo dwarf Yuan's #121/1511, matching the 56%-39% baseline split.
Serve/return▸ Bartunkova●●●
Bartunkova serves at 60% and returns at 43%, both well above Yuan's 54% serve and 34% return.
Form▸ Bartunkova●●
Bartunkova is 5-5 in her last 10 with a 1-match skid; Yuan is 2-8 on a 6-match losing streak.
Rest= Even●
Bartunkova has had 16 days off with no matches, while Yuan played 5 days ago — rhythm vs freshness trade-off.
Model vs Market= Even●●●
Model gives 60% but the market prices 75% (odds 1.33), leaving a -20.6% expected value on the favorite.
LEVEL GAP

The ranking and Elo numbers point firmly toward Bartunkova. A 127-point Elo edge (1638 vs 1511) and a ranking gap of #48 to #121 are substantial for the WTA tier, and the model's own baseline split (56% to 39%) reflects that same hierarchy rather than any surface or contextual adjustment.

SERVE AND RETURN EDGE

Bartunkova's statistical profile backs up the ranking gap point for point. She wins 60% of her service points against Yuan's 54%, a 6-point edge that should let her hold more comfortably. On return she is even further ahead, taking 43% of return points to Yuan's 34% — a 9-point gap that suggests she can also pressure the Yuan serve more effectively than Yuan can pressure hers.

Combined, this serve-and-return picture is one of the clearest structural advantages in the match: Bartunkova rates ahead in both disciplines, not just one, which reduces Yuan's paths to control rallies.

FORM DIVERGES SHARPLY

Recent match trends favor Bartunkova as well. She is 5-5 over her last ten matches with just a one-match losing skid, while Yuan is mired in a 6-match losing streak and just 2-8 over the same span. Neither player carries listed quality wins, but the momentum gap is real and consistent with the ranking and serve/return data.

RESULT VALUE READ

Bartunkova is the more probable winner on nearly every data point available — ranking, Elo, serve, return and recent form all point her way. But the model still only assigns her 60%, well below the 75% implied by the 1.33 odds, producing a -20.6% expected value. That gap means the market is pricing in more certainty than the factor model supports.

Being favored is not the same as offering value here. On these numbers, backing Bartunkova at this price is a bet against the model's own edge, not with it — the honest read is a probable but not profitable favorite.

Impact and analysis from real match data (Elo, form, head-to-head, rest, surface vs baseline, weather, altitude). The model ≈ the market on average; the odds already capture almost all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

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