MODEL PREDICTION · 2026-07-19

D. Dzumhur vs H. Gaston — prediction

Result pending
DZUMHURWIN PROBABILITYGASTON
53%
model prob.
@1.81
odds · 55% impl.
⚔H2H 1–0 Dzumhur⏱Rest 1d vs 5d🎾Serve 60%📈Form 6/10
THE MODEL'S REASONING

›Ranking: #105 vs #118 (better ranked)

›Recent form: 3/10 in recent matches

›Head-to-head: 1-0 in favor

WATCH FOR

!Coming off 4 losses in a row

Calibrated model probability (~65% out-of-sample accuracy). Not a guarantee: the model ≈ the market on average, so the odds already capture almost all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.
@1.89
fair odds
−4.2%
expected value
HOW EACH FACTOR MATTERS
Rest & Schedule▸ Gaston●●●
Dzumhur has just 1 day of rest after 7 matches in 14 days, including an Umag final; Gaston rests 5 days.
Form▸ Dzumhur●●
Dzumhur's 6-4 last10 includes wins over higher-Elo players (Molcan 1933, Svajda 1908) than Gaston's best win (Diaz Acosta 1909).
Head-to-head▸ Dzumhur●
Dzumhur won the only prior meeting (2025), a small but concrete edge with just one data point.
Serve/Return▸ Dzumhur●
Dzumhur's 43% return rate tops Gaston's 40%, slightly outweighing Gaston's 61% vs 60% serve edge.
Level (Elo/ranking)▸ Dzumhur●●
Elo is tied at 1822, but Dzumhur's #105 ranking and 38% baseline beat Gaston's #118 and 25%, though Dzumhur's -18 trend is falling while Gaston's +2 rises.
Market Value= Even●●●
Model gives Dzumhur 53% vs a 60% market-implied price at 1.68 odds, producing a -11% expected value — no edge here.
SCHEDULE AND FATIGUE

The clearest asymmetry in this match is physical load. Dzumhur is playing on one day of rest after seven matches in the last two weeks, including a final at Umag just a day ago. Gaston, by contrast, arrives with five days off and one fewer match in the same span. Deep-run fatigue and short turnaround typically erode serve consistency and movement late in matches, and that risk sits squarely with Dzumhur here, not his opponent.

FORM AND HISTORY

Both players are cooling off — Dzumhur has lost his last match and Gaston his last two — but the quality of Dzumhur's recent wins stands out: victories over Molcan (Elo 1933) and Svajda (Elo 1908) outrank anything on Gaston's list, where Diaz Acosta (1909) is the headline result. The single head-to-head meeting, won by Dzumhur earlier this year, adds a small, concrete tilt in his favor, though a one-match sample carries limited weight on its own.

SERVE-RETURN BALANCE

The serve numbers are close to a wash: Gaston holds a marginal edge on serve (61% vs 60%), but Dzumhur returns better (43% vs 40%). Since the return gap is slightly larger than the serve gap, this component leans, modestly, toward Dzumhur — not enough to be decisive on its own, but consistent with the overall lean of the model.

VALUE READ

The model rates Dzumhur a 53% favorite, meaningfully below the 60% implied by the 1.68 market price, producing a projected -11% expected value. In practical terms, the market is pricing in Dzumhur's edges — ranking, form quality, and the head-to-head — more generously than the model does, likely reflecting the fatigue and rest disadvantage the model weighs heavily. Being the favorite here does not translate into a favorable bet: on these numbers, there is no value on Dzumhur at the current price, and backing him mainly means paying for on-paper edges that his schedule may undercut.

Impact and analysis from real match data (Elo, form, head-to-head, rest, surface vs baseline, weather, altitude). The model ≈ the market on average; the odds already capture almost all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

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