MODEL PREDICTION · 2026-07-19

C. Paquet vs V. Strakhova — prediction

Hamburg
✓ Correct
PAQUETWIN PROBABILITYSTRAKHOVA
57%
model prob.
@1.14
odds · 88% impl.
🌡18° · 61% hum⏱Rest 4d vs 13d🎾Serve 52%📈Form 4/10 · 2✗
THE MODEL'S REASONING

›Ranking: #236 vs #303 (better ranked)

›Recent form: 1/10 in recent matches

›Model 57% vs market 88% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds

WATCH FOR

!Coming off 9 losses in a row

!Returning from a long layoff (96d) — possible rustiness

Calibrated model probability (~64% out-of-sample accuracy, validated specifically on WTA). Not a guarantee: the model ≈ the market on average, so the odds already capture almost all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.
@1.75
fair odds
−34.9%
expected value
HOW EACH FACTOR MATTERS
Level (Elo/ranking)▸ Paquet●●
Paquet leads 236 vs 303 in ranking and 1413 vs 1409 in Elo, but the model only puts her at 57% vs an 88% market price.
Form▸ Paquet●●●
Paquet is 4-6 in her last 10 with a 2-match slide; Strakhova is 1-9 with a 5-match losing streak, a much deeper slump.
Rest▸ Strakhova●
Strakhova has 13 days off vs Paquet's 4, but Paquet has played 3 matches in 14 days to Strakhova's 1, offsetting the freshness gap.
Serve/return▸ Paquet●
Paquet's own numbers (52% serve, 46% return) are unremarkable and there is no comparable data for Strakhova to size the gap.
Weather= Even●
Mild, humid conditions (18°C, 61% humidity, 16 km/h wind) can slow the ball and extend rallies, but no surface or style data lets us tie this to either player.
RANKING AND MODEL GAP

Paquet's ranking (236) and Elo (1413) both edge out Strakhova's (303 and 1409), which is the backbone of her favorite status. The gap is real but not large — a 4-point Elo difference is close to a coin flip on its own.

That's why the model only assigns Paquet 57% to win, far below the 88% implied by the 1.14 odds. The ranking edge supports her as the favorite, but it does not support the degree to which the market is pricing her in.

FORM DIVERGENCE

Recent form clearly favors Paquet. She has won 4 of her last 10 matches with a short 2-match skid, while Strakhova has won just 1 of her last 10 and is mired in a 5-match losing streak. This form gap is one of the more decisive factors in the model's read.

Still, Paquet's own form is mixed rather than strong — she is not on a hot streak herself, just less cold than her opponent. The form edge favors her, but it is a comparison of two struggling players rather than a in-form favorite against a steady underdog.

REST AND RHYTHM

Strakhova arrives with 13 days of rest against Paquet's 4, which should mean fresher legs. But she has played only 1 match in the last 14 days versus Paquet's 3, so Paquet may have sharper match rhythm even with less recovery time.

These two effects largely cancel out: extra rest for Strakhova is balanced by extra recent match play for Paquet. Neither player gets a clear rest advantage here.

VALUE READ

The odds of 1.14 imply an 88% win probability for Paquet, but the model's calibrated estimate is only 57%. That is a large 31-point gap, and the resulting expected value is -34.9%, a clearly negative figure.

Being the favorite is not the same as offering value, and here the market is pricing in far more certainty than the data supports — particularly given Strakhova's poor recent form is already reflected in that 57%. On these numbers, backing Paquet at this price does not look justified.

Impact and analysis from real match data (Elo, form, head-to-head, rest, surface vs baseline, weather, altitude). The model ≈ the market on average; the odds already capture almost all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

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