ATP · ELO ESTIMATE · 2026-07-19

A. Pellegrino vs G. Bueno — prediction

✗ Missed
PELLEGRINOWIN PROBABILITYBUENO
67%
Elo prob.
@1.42
odds · 70% impl.
🎾Serve 63%📈Form 6/10
WHAT THE ESTIMATE IS BASED ON

›Tour Elo: 1870 vs 1750 — favorite by rating

›ATP qualifying / early round · 302 matches in the favorite's track record

›Elo estimate (not the ATP factor model): qualifying draws have no clean main-tour history

WATCH FOR

!Qualifying/soft context: Elo estimate only — read the round context (already-through, lucky loser, dead rubber) from the dossier; it is not a proven edge.

Tour Elo estimate (Challenger/ITF markets, not covered by the factor model). The value edge here is unproven live — it's a reference, not a recommendation. 18+ · gamble responsibly.
@1.50
fair odds
−5.4%
expected value
HOW EACH FACTOR MATTERS
Level (Elo/ranking)▸ Pellegrino●●●
Pellegrino's 1870 Elo tops Bueno's 1750 by 120 points, and ranking No. 124 outweighs an unranked opponent; model gives him 67%.
Form▸ Pellegrino●●
Pellegrino is 6-4 in his last 10 (WWLWLWLWLW) versus Bueno's 3-7 (LLLWWLLLLW), a clearer recent winning pattern.
Serve/return= Even●
Pellegrino serves better (63% vs 60%) but Bueno returns better (38% vs 35%) — the two edges roughly cancel out.
Rest▸ Bueno●●
Pellegrino played 5 matches in 14 days versus Bueno's 3, and reached the Estoril semifinal just 1 day ago — fatigue risk despite equal rest days.
Market value= Even●●●
Model gives Pellegrino 67% but the market prices 70% (odds 1.42), producing a -5.4% EV — no edge here.
LEVEL AND RANKING

Pellegrino's Elo rating of 1870 sits 120 points above Bueno's 1750, and his ranking at No. 124 (Bueno unranked in the data) reinforces a clear quality gap at the Challenger/ITF level. The soft-market Elo model translates this into a 67% win probability for Pellegrino, a meaningful but not overwhelming edge given the estimate's inherent uncertainty in qualifying-heavy tournaments.

FORM AND MOMENTUM

Pellegrino arrives with a 6-4 record over his last 10 matches (WWLWLWLWLW), a pattern of alternating wins and losses that still nets out ahead. Bueno, by contrast, is just 3-7 in his last 10 (LLLWWLLLLW), with more losses clustered together, suggesting less consistent recent form. Both players share the same current streak length of 1, so neither carries decisive momentum into this match, but the baseline win rate clearly favors Pellegrino.

SERVE-RETURN BALANCE

The serve and return numbers largely offset each other. Pellegrino's 63% serve-point win rate is 3 points above Bueno's 60%, which should help him hold more comfortably. But Bueno's 38% return-point win rate is also 3 points better than Pellegrino's 35%, meaning Bueno should generate more break chances than a typical opponent would against Pellegrino. Neither player has a lopsided advantage in this specific dimension.

FATIGUE AND SCHEDULE

Both players are working on 1 day of rest, but the workload leading up to this match differs: Pellegrino has played 5 matches in the last 14 days compared to Bueno's 3. Combined with the fact that Pellegrino reached the Estoril semifinals just one day before this match, there is a tangible fatigue risk working against him that isn't captured in the raw Elo gap.

VALUE CHECK

The model's 67% probability for Pellegrino is close to the market's implied 70% (odds of 1.42), which is typical when a soft Challenger/ITF Elo estimate tracks a reasonably efficient market. The resulting expected value of -5.4% is negative, meaning the current price does not offer backing value even though Pellegrino remains the more likely winner on paper. Being the favorite here does not equate to a profitable bet, and the fatigue and rest signals add further downside risk not fully priced into the model.

Impact and analysis from real match data (Elo, form, head-to-head, rest, surface vs baseline, weather, altitude). Soft-market estimate: the value is unproven live. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

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