HOW EACH FACTOR MATTERS
Level (Elo/ranking)▸ Krejcikova●●●
Krejcikova's Elo 1780 and rank 38 dwarf Tomova's 1495 and rank 155, a gap that usually decides matches outright.
Form▸ Krejcikova●●
7/10 with a win over M. Andreeva (Elo 1906) beats Tomova's 3/10, though Krejcikova is on a 2-match losing streak.
Serve/return▸ Krejcikova●●
Krejcikova's 62% serve-points-won is well above tour average; no comparable number exists for Tomova to offset it.
Rest= Even●
Krejcikova played 4 matches in 14 days (sharp but taxed) vs Tomova's 21 days off (fresh but no match rhythm).
Odds/Value= Even●●●
Model gives 74% but the market prices 93% (odds 1.08), producing a -20.2% expected value even for the favorite.
LEVEL GAP
The core of this matchup is a large class difference: Krejcikova's Elo of 1780 versus Tomova's 1495, mirrored by rankings of 38 against 155. In WTA qualification matches, gaps of this size are rare and typically translate into lopsided results, since Elo already encodes years of relative match outcomes across levels.
FORM AND MOMENTUM
Krejcikova's last 10 matches (7 wins, including one over Andreeva, Elo 1906) show she can compete with elite players, even though she arrives on a two-match losing skid. Tomova's form is worse in both scale and quality — 3 wins in 10 with no notable victories and a three-match losing streak — reinforcing the level gap rather than offsetting it.
SERVE ADVANTAGE
Krejcikova's 62% serve-points-won is a strong number in isolation, and combined with a 44% return rate it points to a player who controls points on both sides of the ball. No serve or return data exists for Tomova, so this factor can only be read as a standalone strength for the favorite, not a direct comparative edge.
SCHEDULE CONTRAST
Krejcikova arrives with only 9 days of rest after 4 matches in the last two weeks — she is match-sharp but carries more physical load. Tomova has had 21 days off with zero matches in that span, giving her fresher legs but no recent competitive rhythm. These effects likely cancel out rather than clearly favoring either player.
VALUE CHECK
The model rates Krejcikova as a 74% favorite, well below the market's implied 93% (odds of 1.08). That gap produces a -20.2% expected value, meaning that even if she wins as expected, backing her at this price is not statistically favorable over time.
Being the stronger player by Elo, ranking, and form does not equal being a value bet here. The market appears to be pricing in near-certainty, and the model's estimate suggests more uncertainty remains than the odds reflect.
Impact and analysis from real match data (Elo, form, head-to-head, rest, surface vs baseline, weather, altitude). The model ≈ the market on average; the odds already capture almost all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.