← Predictions
Challenger · ELO ESTIMATE · 2026-07-07
Iasi
✓ Correct
DROGUETWIN PROBABILITYERHARD
76%
Elo prob.
@1.25
odds · 80% impl.
@1.32
fair odds
−5.4%
expected value
⚔H2H 3–0 Droguet⏱Rest 7d vs 6d🎾Serve 65%📈Form 5/10 · 2✗
WHAT THE ESTIMATE IS BASED ON

›Elo del circuito: 1886 vs 1689 — favorito por rating

›Nivel Challenger · 325 partidos de historial del favorito

›Estimación por Elo (no el modelo de factores ATP): estos son mercados más blandos y menos analizados

WATCH FOR

!Mercado blando: el edge de valor en Challenger/ITF NO está probado en vivo — trátalo como estimación, no como oportunidad.

BREAKDOWN · ELO ESTIMATE

The model makes T. Droguet the favorite with a 76% win probability, against M. Erhard's 24% — a conviction read: the model sees the match clearly leaning one way. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.32; the offered odds are around @1.25 (a 80% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.

Several factors explain the number: 1886 vs 1689 — favorito por rating; nivel challenger · 325 partidos de historial del favorito; estos son mercados más blandos y menos analizados.

Read it with caution. This number does NOT come from the ATP factor model, but from the tour's real Elo: it ranks who is the favorite well, but it is a coarser estimate. Being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 24 out of every 100 times Erhard wins. And above all, in Challenger/ITF the value edge is not proven live, so treat it as a reference, not an opportunity. Watch out for: Mercado blando: el edge de valor en Challenger/ITF NO está probado en vivo — trátalo como estimación, no como oportunidad.. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

Tour Elo estimate (Challenger/ITF markets, not covered by the factor model). The value edge here is unproven live — it's a reference, not a recommendation. 18+ · gamble responsibly.
Analyze today's matches →