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ITF · ELO ESTIMATE · 2026-07-07
G. Tabacco vs T. Sickenberger
M25+H Kassel
✓ Correct
TABACCOWIN PROBABILITYSICKENBERGER
74%
Elo prob.
@1.12
odds · 89% impl.
@1.34
fair odds
−16.7%
expected value
⏱Rest 12d vs 5d📈Form 6/10
WHAT THE ESTIMATE IS BASED ON

›Elo del circuito: 1592 vs 1407 — favorito por rating

›Nivel ITF · 175 partidos de historial del favorito

›Estimación por Elo (no el modelo de factores ATP): estos son mercados más blandos y menos analizados

WATCH FOR

!Mercado blando: el edge de valor en Challenger/ITF NO está probado en vivo — trátalo como estimación, no como oportunidad.

BREAKDOWN · ELO ESTIMATE

The model makes G. Tabacco the favorite with a 74% win probability, against T. Sickenberger's 26% — a solid favorite, though Sickenberger keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.34; the offered odds are around @1.12 (a 89% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.

Several factors explain the number: 1592 vs 1407 — favorito por rating; nivel itf · 175 partidos de historial del favorito; estos son mercados más blandos y menos analizados.

Read it with caution. This number does NOT come from the ATP factor model, but from the tour's real Elo: it ranks who is the favorite well, but it is a coarser estimate. Being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 26 out of every 100 times Sickenberger wins. And above all, in Challenger/ITF the value edge is not proven live, so treat it as a reference, not an opportunity. Watch out for: Mercado blando: el edge de valor en Challenger/ITF NO está probado en vivo — trátalo como estimación, no como oportunidad.. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

Tour Elo estimate (Challenger/ITF markets, not covered by the factor model). The value edge here is unproven live — it's a reference, not a recommendation. 18+ · gamble responsibly.
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