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Challenger · ELO ESTIMATE · 2026-07-07
Liege (Belgium) - Qualification
✓ Correct
ONCLINWIN PROBABILITYLEE
81%
Elo prob.
@1.22
odds · 82% impl.
@1.24
fair odds
−1.5%
expected value
⚔H2H 1–0 Onclin⏱Rest 13d vs 2d🎾Serve 63%📈Form 5/10
WHAT THE ESTIMATE IS BASED ON

›Elo del circuito: 1855 vs 1606 — favorito por rating

›Nivel Challenger · 363 partidos de historial del favorito

›Estimación por Elo (no el modelo de factores ATP): estos son mercados más blandos y menos analizados

WATCH FOR

!Mercado blando: el edge de valor en Challenger/ITF NO está probado en vivo — trátalo como estimación, no como oportunidad.

BREAKDOWN · ELO ESTIMATE

The model makes G. Onclin the favorite with a 81% win probability, against G. Campana Lee's 19% — a conviction read: the model sees the match clearly leaning one way. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.24; the offered odds are around @1.22 (a 82% implied), virtually the same as what the market prices in.

Several factors explain the number: 1855 vs 1606 — favorito por rating; nivel challenger · 363 partidos de historial del favorito; estos son mercados más blandos y menos analizados.

Read it with caution. This number does NOT come from the ATP factor model, but from the tour's real Elo: it ranks who is the favorite well, but it is a coarser estimate. Being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 19 out of every 100 times Lee wins. And above all, in Challenger/ITF the value edge is not proven live, so treat it as a reference, not an opportunity. Watch out for: Mercado blando: el edge de valor en Challenger/ITF NO está probado en vivo — trátalo como estimación, no como oportunidad.. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

Tour Elo estimate (Challenger/ITF markets, not covered by the factor model). The value edge here is unproven live — it's a reference, not a recommendation. 18+ · gamble responsibly.
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