PREDICCIÓN DEL MODELO · 2026-09-29

● HARD

A. Fils vs L. van Assche — predicción

Tokyo

✓ Acertado

FILSPROBABILIDAD DE VICTORIAASSCHE

85%

prob. modelo

@1.16

cuota · 86% impl.

⚔H2H 1–0 Fils⏱Descanso 1d vs 27d◐Hard 71%🎾Saque 69%📈Forma 9/10 · 2✓

CONDICIONES DEL PARTIDO◆ en el modelo◇ contexto

Superficie◆

Dura

Bote regular y velocidad media-alta: condiciones neutras, sin favorecer un estilo.

Temperatura◇

20°C

Templado: condiciones neutras.

Humedad◇

92%

Aire muy húmedo: la bola se hace pesada y los puntos se alargan.

Viento◇

2 km/h

Viento flojo: sin efecto apreciable.

La superficie sí entra en el modelo (la especialización por superficie es uno de sus factores). El clima y la altitud son contexto que publicamos para ti — NO mueven la probabilidad.

EL RAZONAMIENTO DEL MODELO

›Ranking: #9 vs #43 (mejor clasificado)

›Sólido en pista dura: 64% en su carrera en esta superficie

›Forma reciente: 9/10 en los últimos partidos

›En racha: 2 victorias seguidas

Probabilidad calibrada del modelo (~65% de precisión fuera de muestra). No es una garantía: el modelo ≈ el mercado de media, así que la cuota ya captura casi toda la ventaja. +18 · juega con responsabilidad.

@1.18

cuota justa

−1.9%

valor esperado

CÓMO IMPORTA CADA FACTOR

Level (Elo/ranking)▸ Fils●●●

Fils (Elo 2159, ranking #9) vs van Assche (Elo 1965, ranking #43): 194-point gap confirms superiority. Model assigns 85% to Fils; market prices 86%.

Form▸ Fils●●●

Fils: 9/10 recent (2-match streak, wins over Tiafoe Elo 2096 and De Minaur Elo 2068). Van Assche: 6/10 recent, on losing streak, lower-rated opposition.

Surface▸ Fils●●

Hard court: Fils 71% win rate (baseline 73%); van Assche 20% (baseline 59%, −39 points below). Fils dominates the surface; van Assche collapses on hard.

Serve/Return▸ Fils●●

Fils serves 69%, returns 40%. Van Assche serves 62%, returns 42%. Fils holds the serve edge (7 points); return nearly equal. Fils pressure weapon.

Rest/Fatigue▸ Assche●●

Fils: 1 day rest, 1 match in 14 days (ATP Tokyo early round, low fixture load). Van Assche: 27 days fresh. Minimal fatigue burden on Fils, but freshness favors van Assche.

Head-to-head▸ Fils●

One prior meeting (2023 ATP): Fils won. Single data point; no pattern.

Weather= Igualado●

Mild (20°C), very humid (92%), low wind (2 kmh). Humidity prolongs rallies slightly, neutral impact on both.

CLEAR HIERARCHY

Fils enters as a heavy favorite on fundamentals. His Elo (2159) sits 194 points above van Assche (1965), mirroring a ranking gap of #9 vs #43. The ATP factor model calibrates this to 85% win probability, nearly matching the market's 86%. On hard courts—the surface in Tokyo—the gap widens: Fils posts a 71% win rate (just 2 points below his 73% baseline), while van Assche collapses to 20% (39 points below his 59% career average). Van Assche has no meaningful hard-court game.

FORM DISPARITY

Fils is in peak form: 9 wins in his last 10 matches, a 2-match winning streak, and recent scalps of Tiafoe (Elo 2096) and De Minaur (Elo 2068)—both top-100 players. Van Assche's record is 6/10 over the same window, he is on a losing streak, and his best wins (Norrie Elo 1937, Bonzi Elo 1911) are weaker in absolute rating. Fils has momentum; van Assche does not.

SERVE EDGE, REST OFFSET

Fils' serve dominates: 69% vs van Assche's 62%, a 7-point advantage that will be decisive on hard court where flat, fast serves thrive. Return is nearly even (Fils 40%, van Assche 42%), so Fils' serve becomes his primary weapon. However, Fils arrives with minimal rest (1 day, 1 match in 14 days), while van Assche has been idle for 27 days. The freshness edge to van Assche is real but unlikely to overcome the quality and form gap. Fils' schedule is not congested enough to significantly impair him at this early round.

CONTEXT & STAKES

Two red flags flank Fils: he is a #9 seed in an early round (1/16-finals, weak field context for his level) and carries short rest before a tournament where he may face pressure to perform. Van Assche, conversely, is fresh and could exploit any mental letdown. That said, both flags are mild and contextual—they do not overturn the fundamental quality advantage.

VALUE ASSESSMENT

The model prices Fils at 85%, the market at 86%. Expected value is −1.9%: a small negative edge. The favorite is not mispriced, it is fairly valued or slightly overbought at 1.16 odds. Betting Fils offers no edge; the market has already absorbed his dominance. Van Assche's 15% probability reflects real underdog uncertainty (form, rest, upset upside), but the 85/15 split is honest, not an opportunity.

Impacto y análisis a partir de datos reales del partido (Elo, forma, cara a cara, descanso, superficie vs base, clima, altitud). El modelo ≈ el mercado de media; la cuota ya captura casi toda la ventaja. +18 · juega con responsabilidad.

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