PREDICCIÓN DEL MODELO · 2026-09-13

● CLAY

S. Sorribes Tormo vs C. Dolehide — predicción

Guadalajara

✓ Acertado

TORMOPROBABILIDAD DE VICTORIADOLEHIDE

54%

prob. modelo

@2.05

cuota · 49% impl.

⚔H2H 0–1 Tormo🎾Saque 54%📈Forma 5/10

CONDICIONES DEL PARTIDO◆ en el modelo◇ contexto

Superficie◆

Tierra

Pista lenta y bote alto: puntos largos, premia al que aguanta desde el fondo.

Temperatura◇

24°C

Ambiente cálido: la bola vuela algo más y el físico cuenta.

Humedad◇

66%

Aire húmedo: la bola pierde algo de velocidad.

Viento◇

7 km/h

Viento flojo: sin efecto apreciable.

Altitud◇

1566 m

Altitud alta: aire fino, bola más rápida y bote más largo.

La superficie sí entra en el modelo (la especialización por superficie es uno de sus factores). El clima y la altitud son contexto que publicamos para ti — NO mueven la probabilidad.

EL RAZONAMIENTO DEL MODELO

›Ranking: #203 vs #248 (mejor clasificado)

›Forma reciente: 2/10 en los últimos partidos

›Más descansado: 54d frente a los 31d del rival

OJO CON

!Viene de 3 derrotas seguidas

!Vuelve tras un parón largo (54d) — posible falta de ritmo

Probabilidad calibrada del modelo (~64% de precisión fuera de muestra, validada específicamente en WTA). No es una garantía: el modelo ≈ el mercado de media, así que la cuota ya captura casi toda la ventaja. +18 · juega con responsabilidad.

@1.86

cuota justa

+10.1%

valor esperado

CÓMO IMPORTA CADA FACTOR

Level (Elo/ranking)▸ Dolehide●●●

Sorribes Tormo (Elo 1591, #203) ranks above Dolehide (1576, #248). Dolehide's ranking has fallen 113 spots; Sorribes Tormo is +9. Model favors Dolehide only 52% despite this deficit, signaling the gap is real.

Surface▸ Tormo●●

Dolehide wins 40% of points on clay vs 38% baseline; +2-point surface edge on slow clay. Sorribes Tormo has no recorded clay metric. Modest advantage to Dolehide, but offset by ranking gap.

Serve/Return▸ Tormo●●

Dolehide serves 56% vs Sorribes Tormo's 54%, and returns 40% vs opponent's 47%. Dolehide's service edge is marginal; Sorribes Tormo's return advantage (+7 points) is more significant on clay's longer rallies.

Form▸ Tormo●●

Dolehide: 6/10 recent (W-L-L-L-W trend mixed); Sorribes Tormo: 4/10 recent (L-L-L-L-W trend weaker). Dolehide steadier, but both carry inconsistency into this match. Neither has quality wins listed.

Rest/Fatigue▸ Tormo●

Dolehide: 1 day rest, 1 match in 14 days. Sorribes Tormo: 1 day rest, 3 matches in 14 days. Sorribes Tormo's higher match load may blunt her edge at Elo/ranking, but difference is modest.

Altitude & Weather= Igualado●

1566 m altitude, warm (24°C), humid (66%), 6 km/h wind. Conditions favour the better server overall, but humidity and clay's friction neutralize altitude benefits. No decisive edge.

RANKING & ELO REALITY

Sorribes Tormo enters as the stronger player on paper. Her Elo (1591) and ranking (#203) exceed Dolehide's (1576 Elo, #248 ranking), and Dolehide's ranking has deteriorated 113 spots while Sorribes Tormo has gained 9. This is not a close gap—it reflects a real difference in recent performance and match quality.

The model assigns Dolehide only 52% win probability despite being listed as favorite, which is honest recognition of Sorribes Tormo's edge. The disparity between model (52%) and market odds (60% implied) is the first red flag: the market is overvaluing Dolehide.

FORM & MOMENTUM

Both players are inconsistent. Dolehide has won 6 of her last 10 matches with a recent +1 streak, while Sorribes Tormo has won 4 of 10 with a similar +1 streak. Neither shows a confidence-building pattern. Neither has a quality win listed, indicating both are playing below top-20 level.

Form is a wash, which means the ranking and Elo metrics—where Sorribes Tormo leads—remain the decisive differentiator. Sorribes Tormo's recent match load (3 matches in 14 days vs Dolehide's 1) is slightly concerning, but one additional day of rest will not erase the level gap.

VALUE & ODDS ASSESSMENT

The model assigns Dolehide 52% probability. Market odds of 1.68 imply 60%, a gap of 8 percentage points. At 52% model probability, a 1.68 payout yields expected value of –12.8%, meaning the market has overpriced Dolehide relative to the model's assessment. This is not value.

Dolehide is the favorite, but that status does not guarantee value. Sorribes Tormo's ranking and Elo superiority, combined with her edge in return and consistency, make her the real match favourite despite being the underdog in the market. A player betting Dolehide at 1.68 is paying a premium for a player who ranks below her opponent and has been falling in recent months. The honest read: avoid at these odds, or consider Sorribes Tormo if available at better prices.

Impacto y análisis a partir de datos reales del partido (Elo, forma, cara a cara, descanso, superficie vs base, clima, altitud). El modelo ≈ el mercado de media; la cuota ya captura casi toda la ventaja. +18 · juega con responsabilidad.

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