CÓMO IMPORTA CADA FACTOR
Level (Elo/ranking)▸ Liutova●●●
Liutova #125 vs Kubka #182; Elo 1579 vs 1558. Model assigns 79% to Liutova, anchored in ranking gap and recent consistency.
Form▸ Liutova●●
Liutova: 7-win streak (LWWWWWWW). Kubka: 2-win streak after loss (LWWWWWWLWW). Liutova's momentum is substantially stronger.
Serve/Return▸ Liutova●●
Serve: both 57%. Return: Liutova 50% vs Kubka 42%, giving Liutova a +8 pp advantage in break opportunities on hard court.
Rest/Fatigue= Igualado●●●
Both reached US Open semi-finals 1d ago; both played 2 matches in 14 days. Symmetrical deep-run fatigue; no fresh advantage.
Weather= Igualado●
27°C, 75% humidity, 24 km/h wind applies uniformly. Humid conditions slow pace slightly but favor neither player's documented style.
RANKING & LEVEL
Liutova enters as the clear higher-ranked player (#125 vs #182) with a 21-point Elo advantage (1579 vs 1558). The model's 79% probability for Liutova is anchored in this stable ranking gap and reinforced by her Elo reading, which reflects genuine strength in the WTA cohort. This is the dominant structural factor.
FORM: LIUTOVA'S STREAK
Liutova carries a 7-win streak into this match (record LWWWWWWW over her last 10), while Kubka has won only 2 consecutive after a recent loss (LWWWWWWLWW). In the short term, momentum is heavily with Liutova. Her consistent run suggests technical and mental confidence; Kubka is rebuilding after a setback. On hard court, where rhythm matters, Liutova's hot hand is a material advantage.
RETURN EDGE
Both players hold the same serve percentage (57%), so neither has a service dominance. However, Liutova's return rating of 50% outstrips Kubka's 42% by 8 percentage points. On hard court, where serve-and-volley is rare and consistent break opportunities accumulate, this return gap is meaningful. Kubka will find it harder to hold serve and control rallies off the second serve.
FATIGUE & CONTEXT
Both players reached the semi-finals of the US Open 1 day ago—a deep run that required multiple matches and high intensity. The context flag shows symmetrical deep-run fatigue with no recovery advantage for either side. Both have played 2 matches in 14 days. While fatigue is a real headwind for both, it does not tilt the scales between them; Liutova's structural superiority must carry the match if she is to overcome shared tiredness.
VALUE ASSESSMENT
The model assigns 79% to Liutova; the market (1.35 odds) implies 74%. The +5 pp gap translates to an expected value of +6.3%, a modest but genuine edge if the model is accurate. However, the model's 64% out-of-sample accuracy on WTA means results will not follow the probability 79 times out of 100; variance is substantial at this tier. Liutova is the rightful favorite, backed by ranking, form, and return skill, but the market is reasonably priced. No strong value signal either way—the odds reflect genuine uncertainty.
Impacto y análisis a partir de datos reales del partido (Elo, forma, cara a cara, descanso, superficie vs base, clima, altitud). El modelo ≈ el mercado de media; la cuota ya captura casi toda la ventaja. +18 · juega con responsabilidad.