CÓMO IMPORTA CADA FACTOR
Level (Elo/ranking)▸ Norrie●●●
Norrie (#29, Elo 1917) ranks 40 places above Carabelli (#69, Elo 1879); model gives Norrie 62%, but market prices him at 79%—a 17-point overestimate of his advantage.
Form▸ Carabelli●●●
Norrie won 4/10 recent matches (40%), coming off 5 consecutive losses; Carabelli won 6/10 (60%) with quality wins over Tiafoe (Elo 2012) and Majchrzak (1937). Carabelli's trajectory much stronger.
Rest/Fatigue▸ Carabelli●●●
Norrie has 2d rest after semifinal at Los Cabos; 4 matches in 7 days. Carabelli: 14d rest, 1 match in 14 days. Norrie arrives fatigued; Carabelli fresh and unpressured.
Surface (Hard court)▸ Norrie●●
Norrie: 52% on hard, 0pts above baseline (52% baseline); Carabelli: 32% on hard, 13pts below baseline (45% baseline). Hard penalizes Carabelli more than it helps Norrie.
Serve/Return▸ Norrie●●
Norrie serves 64% vs Carabelli's 59%; returns 40% vs 39%. Norrie holds marginal edge in both disciplines, but not decisive enough to overcome form and fatigue gap.
Weather= Igualado●
22°C, 91% humidity, 14 km/h wind: humid air and moderate wind slightly slow the court and reward precision; neither player has data suggesting weather-specific vulnerability.
RANKING VS FORM
Norrie enters as the clear favorite on paper: 40 ranking places ahead and a 38-point Elo advantage. However, the last fortnight has gutted his credentials. He has won only 4 of his last 10 matches and sits on a five-loss skid. Carabelli, conversely, arrives in Montreal riding a 60% win rate (6/10) over the same window and has notably scalped Tiafoe—a 2012-rated player—and Majchrzak (1937). The form reversal is stark and material: in pure momentum, Carabelli looks more dangerous than Norrie's ranking suggests.
PHYSICAL ASYMMETRY
Norrie played a semifinal at Los Cabos two days ago and has disputed four matches in seven days. His body is carrying genuine fatigue from a late run at a 500-level event. Carabelli arrives with 14 days of rest and just one match in the preceding two weeks—a luxury that translates to freshness and low psychological pressure. In hard-court tennis, where explosive movement and serve consistency are taxed, the rest gap is not academic. Norrie's serve (64%) and return (40%) are better in absolute terms, but fatigue erodes both; Carabelli's 59% serve and 39% return become more competitive when Norrie is depleted.
SURFACE AND SERVE
The hard court represents Norrie's strongest relative discipline. He converts 52% of hard-court points against his 52% baseline—meaning the surface offers him zero edge. Carabelli, by contrast, slides from a 45% baseline to just 32% on hard, a 13-point cliff. This is the one clearest factor in Norrie's favor: the hard court punishes Carabelli's game more than it aids Norrie's, giving Norrie a structural advantage in the serve-dominated rallies that hard courts encourage. Carabelli's return (39%) is nearly as weak as Norrie's, so the serve battle will dominate, and Norrie has the upper hand there.
MODEL VS MARKET
The ATP model assigns Norrie a 62% win probability; the market (odds 1.27) implies 79%. A 17-percentage-point gap is substantial and signals the market is pricing Norrie's top-40 ranking and serve edge more heavily than recent form collapse and fatigue warrant. The model is the more honest broker here: Norrie remains favored, but not by the odds' margin. The -20.7% expected value confirms that backing Norrie at 1.27 is a poor bet—the market has overcompensated for his rank, underweighting the deterioration in fitness and recent wins. Carabelli is the more interesting contrarian play, though he too carries a significant handicap on hard court.
Impacto y análisis a partir de datos reales del partido (Elo, forma, cara a cara, descanso, superficie vs base, clima, altitud). El modelo ≈ el mercado de media; la cuota ya captura casi toda la ventaja. +18 · juega con responsabilidad.