CÓMO IMPORTA CADA FACTOR
Level (Elo/ranking)▸ Shevchenko●●●
Shevchenko ranking #84 vs #134; Elo 1819 vs 1885 favors opponent on rating. Model assigns 54% to Shevchenko despite lower Elo: ranking + recent trajectory (+4 vs +13) tips balance to favorite.
Head-to-head▸ Shevchenko●●
Shevchenko 2–0 vs Jacquet in 2021 Challengers. Direct evidence of dominance in prior meetings; favors repetition of pattern.
Form▸ Jacquet●●
Jacquet 6/10 last 10 matches vs Shevchenko 4/10; Jacquet on −1 streak vs −2. Jacquet's recent form more stable; quality win vs Merida Aguilar (Elo 1924) matches Shevchenko's vs Halys (1916).
Serve/Return▸ Jacquet●●
Jacquet serves 65% vs Shevchenko 64%; Jacquet returns 38% vs Shevchenko 35%. Jacquet marginal edge on both; on hard court, small serve advantage matters.
Rest/Fatigue▸ Shevchenko●
Shevchenko 11 days rest, 2 matches in 14 days vs Jacquet 10 days, 4 matches in 14 days. Shevchenko fresher; Jacquet's congestion slight disadvantage over distance.
Surface▸ Shevchenko●
Shevchenko 41% hard-court win rate, 1 point above baseline (40%). Jacquet data absent. Hard court suits Shevchenko marginally; no counter-evidence for Jacquet.
Weather= Igualado●
26°C, 57% humidity, 8 km/h wind. Warm and humid conditions; no extreme altitude or drought. Neutral for both; favors neither extreme server nor returner type.
LEVEL & RANKING
Shevchenko (#84) enters with superior ranking over Jacquet (#134), a 50-place gap. However, Elo ratings invert the narrative: Jacquet (1885) outranks Shevchenko (1819) by 66 points, suggesting Jacquet's recent play has been sharper than his official ranking reflects. The ranking trend favors Shevchenko (+4 vs +13), indicating steadier upward momentum, but Jacquet's trend is steeper.
The model's 54% for Shevchenko reflects a judgment that official ranking, recent trajectory, and the favorite's profile outweigh Elo's current snapshot. This is plausible — ranking is a longer window — but Elo's gap is material and should temper confidence in Shevchenko's baseline superiority.
HEAD-TO-HEAD & FORM
Shevchenko holds a clean 2–0 record against Jacquet, both wins in 2021 Challengers. This direct evidence of prior dominance is meaningful and favors repetition. However, form trends cut the other way: Jacquet's last 10 matches show 6 wins vs Shevchenko's 4; Jacquet's −1 streak is shorter than Shevchenko's −2. Both players won one quality match (Jacquet vs Merida Aguilar, Elo 1924; Shevchenko vs Halys, Elo 1916), roughly equivalent in opponent caliber.
The head-to-head edge is real but dated (three years old at ATP level) and uncontradicted by recent form disparities. Jacquet's stability in the last fortnight suggests he may have tightened since those Challenger meetings.
SERVE, RETURN & SURFACE
On hard court, serve matters. Jacquet edges Shevchenko 65% to 64% on serve points won; Jacquet also leads 38% to 35% on return. Both advantages are marginal — 1–3 percentage points — but on a fast surface they compound. Shevchenko's hard-court record (41%, 1 point above his 40% baseline) suggests modest comfort, but Jacquet's serve superiority and absence of surface-specific data for Jacquet mean the surface is neutral-to-slightly-opponent.
The weather (26°C, 57% humidity, 8 km/h wind) is warm and humid but not extreme. The ball will play fast but not exceptionally; wind is light. Neither player is penalized by conditions; the serve edge remains Jacquet's structural advantage.
REST & CONTEXT
Shevchenko has 11 days rest and played only 2 matches in 14 days; Jacquet has 10 days rest but played 4 matches in the same window. Shevchenko's fresher preparation is a minor plus over a best-of-three match, but Jacquet's congestion is not extreme enough to trigger deep fatigue in a single encounter. This factor lightly favors Shevchenko but is unlikely to swing the match.
VALUE & VERDICT
The model assigns 54% to Shevchenko; the market (odds 2.25) implies 44%. The model claims 21.4% expected value, suggesting Shevchenko is underpriced. However, Elo and recent form both lean toward Jacquet, and the model's 54% is not high confidence — it is barely above a coin flip. The head-to-head is old and Jacquet's serve edge is real.
Shevchenko is the nominal favorite and has logical reasons (ranking, prior meetings, fresher rest) but the discrepancy between the model and market may simply reflect that this is a tight, uncertain match played on ATP's biggest stage. The 54%–46% split is genuine uncertainty. For backing Shevchenko at 2.25, the model's EV is positive but modest in magnitude; no strong conviction exists. Jacquet, at implied 56%, deserves respect: he is fresher in form, serves equally well, and his Elo is higher.
Impacto y análisis a partir de datos reales del partido (Elo, forma, cara a cara, descanso, superficie vs base, clima, altitud). El modelo ≈ el mercado de media; la cuota ya captura casi toda la ventaja. +18 · juega con responsabilidad.